Mission-Oriented Research and Theory of Change: Driving Australia’s Transition to a Circular Economy

Abstract Australia’s linear economic system hinders the collective pursuit of sustainability, equity, and well-being. As demands for housing, food, energy, transportation, and goods escalate, transitioning to a circular economy becomes imperative. Such a transition necessitates a transformation in business and governance models, as well as cultural shifts, to foster sustainable material flows. The proposed change will likely unfold in five phases: envisioning a circular economy future, evaluating options and trade-offs, initiating local actions, amplifying national efforts, and solidifying global agreements. This shift will occur within the context of significant technical, environmental, social, and economic megatrends, and each phase is likely to overlap with the next, with some phases occurring concomitantly and ongoing. It will reshape socio-technical systems and social practices that fulfil our essential needs. Moreover, this transformation process is inherently circular, characterised by continuous cycles of learning, adaptation, and risk management.