Insight into Carbon Emissions in Economically Developed Regions Based on Land Use Transitions: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China

This study focused on the land use (LU) structure and carbon emissions (CEs) in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Shanghai provinces of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) in China from 2000 to 2020, using the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis (SA). We conducted an analysis of the influence exerted by relevant factors on land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) and made forecasts regarding the diverse development scenarios of CE trends, aiming to provide methodological guidance for validating the effectiveness of existing policies in reducing CEs and offer direction for achieving the peak CO2 emissions target as soon as possible. It also constitutes a significant reference for the early realization of the peak CO2 emissions target. The results indicated the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, CEs resulting from LU in the YRD rose from 2.70 × 108 t to 9.10 × 108 t, marking an increase of 243.77%. In 2020, the built-up area was the predominant contributor to CEs, representing 99.15% of the overall carbon sources, whereas forests served as the main carbon sink, comprising 92.37% of the total carbon sinks (CSs) for that year. (2) For each percent increase in the parameters considered in this study, the corresponding increases in LU CO2 emissions were estimated to be: 1.932% (population), 0.241% (GDP per capita), −0.141% (energy intensity), 0.043% (consumption structure), 1.045% (industrial structure), and 0.975% (urbanization). (3) According to the existing policy framework and development plans, the YRD is expected to achieve peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. If energy conservation and carbon reduction strategies are implemented, this peak could be achieved as early as 2025. However, if economic growth continues to depend primarily on fossil fuel consumption, the region may not hit its carbon peak until 2035. (4) The low-carbon scenario, which considers the needs of social progress alongside the intensity of carbon emission reductions, represents the most effective development strategy for reaching a carbon peak in LU within the YRD. Effectively managing population size and facilitating the upgrading of industrial structures are key strategies to hasten the achievement of peaking carbon dioxide emissions in the region.