Climate Risks and Economic Consequences of Rising Global CO2 Emissions in Aviation, Shipping, and Heavy-Duty Transport

This study examines methods to lessen the environmental consequences of global CO2 emissions from the hard-to-abate transport sector. The paper analyzed historical and projected trends in global CO2 emissions from the hard-to-abate transport industry under two scenarios: the stated policy scenario (STEPS) and the announced pledged scenario (APS). The study covered the historical period from 2010 to 2022 and projected emissions up to 2050. The analysis revealed that the compound annual growth rate (CAAGR) of STEP exceeded that of APS in 2030 and 2050 for challenging emissions from heavy- duty vehicles, aircraft, and shipping when compared to the baseline year of 2022. The aviation industry has a higher CAAGR of 5.3% and 2.5% for 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to heavy-duty vehicles at 1.6% and 0.9% for 2030 and 2050, respectively, and shipping at 0.7% and 0.9% for 2030 and 2050, respectively, under STEPS. Under the APS scenario, shipping showed a negative CAAGR of -0.8% and -2.8% for 2030 and 2050, respectively, and 0.4% and -1.8% for 2030 and 2050, respectively, for heavy-duty trucks. In comparison, the aviation industry had CAAGRs of 4.5% and 0.8% for 2030 and 2050, respectively. The data shows that the aviation industry is expected to see a far greater CAAGR in emissions than heavy-duty vehicles and shipping in both STEPS and APS scenarios. Targeted efforts are necessary to mitigate the environmental effects of air travel in the upcoming decades. The paper also examined 56 publicly traded international transportation companies and their corresponding carbon emission targets. Only seven companies, or 12.5%, have established goals for reducing emissions from 2023 to 2050; 10 companies, accounting for 17.9%, have committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2040 to 2060; five corporations, representing 8.9%, have set targets for reducing emission intensity from 2025 to 2034; and 34 global corporations, making up 60.7%, have committed to achieving net zero emissions between 2040 and 2050. Despite some progress in setting emission reduction targets in the air travel industry, many companies still need to set carbon footprint reduction goals.