Assessment of carbon emission reduction potential in new-type urbanization policy: A perspective on carbon rebound effect

In this research, we utilize a refined model for carbon emissions, known as the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA), to measure the extent of the carbon rebound effect across a sample of 231 urban areas in China, spanning the years 2011 through 2019. Additionally, the study explores the impact that policies associated with the advancement of new urbanization have had on the aforementioned carbon rebound phenomenon. The findings of this thesis indicate that this policy can reduce carbon emission volumes effectively; however, there is also a significant carbon rebound effect, making the reduction less efficient than expected. After several robustness tests, the main conclusions remain consistent and reliable. Our investigation into the underlying mechanisms reveals that policies aimed at fostering new urbanization may attenuate the carbon rebound effect by enhancing the efficiency and composition of industrial sectors. However, technological advancements and the degree of energy efficiency remain pivotal in potentially escalating the carbon rebound effect. The analysis of variations across different scenarios demonstrates that the policy’s impact on the carbon rebound effect is subject to variation depending on several factors, including geographical contexts like provincial boundaries, the administrative hierarchy of cities, transportation infrastructure, and the constraints imposed by resource availability. As a multi-target policy, although this policy has a carbon rebound effect, it also has a significant social welfare effect, which coincides with the development goal of China. Ultimately, some suggestions are offered to enhance the role of this policy in promoting carbon emission reduction and to foster a virtuous interaction between this policy and economic growth.