Effective management of urban water resources under various climate scenarios in semiarid mediterranean areas

Climate change has a significant impact on water resources, making it essential to re-evaluate water management strategies and incorporate climate scenarios in assessments. The Municipal Department of Aigeiros is located in the northern part of Greece. Water consumption is high in Aigeiros and the increased future temperatures projected during the summer period will create significant pressures on water resources. The water resources management study of the region is carried out using the simulations of the RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by the HadGEM-ES global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) under 3 different climate emission scenarios, namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the simulation of the urban water balance of Aigeiros, Komotini, Greece and the assessment of water demand and supply for three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) over a 30-year period, the Aquacycle software was used. The data used in the assessment included projected climatic conditions for the area (i.e., precipitation and evapotranspiration), domestic water consumption, and natural and spatial characteristics. The results indicate that drinking water demand is likely to increase in the coming decades for RCP 4.5 (1323 m³/d for 2041-2050) and RCP 8.5 (1330 m³/d for 2041-2050) scenarios compared to 2020 (1320 m³/d). However, simulations for water supply suggest an increase in groundwater recharge in the future, but also the potential for long drought periods during summer months in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The simulation results show both the current situation and the climate scenarios and can be the reference basis for recording the different types of water consumption in urban areas. Therefore, it is possible to control and predict how much of the total consumption is due to the consumer usage profile within a household or to the irrigation needs of green areas in line with the climatic conditions, consumer behavior and technical parameters.