Extremity in Opposition Supported by Illusion of Explanatory Depth: Study of Support Against Use of Quick Count on Presidential Election

This study investigates the phenomenon of knowledge overestimation in the opposition's attitude towards quick counts in general elections in Indonesia. Involving 533 respondents in two studies, the findings of the first study indicate a significant correlation between subjective knowledge, objective knowledge, and the level of extremity in attitudes towards quick counts. These results reveal that individuals with extreme opposition attitudes tend to experience a discrepancy between the knowledge they claim to possess (subjective) and their actual knowledge (objective), depicting the Illusion of Explanatory Depth (IOED) phenomenon. The second study replicates and strengthens these findings, affirming those individuals with extreme opposition and belief in conspiracy theories about quick counts (“paid survey institutions”) have lower subjective knowledge and higher objective knowledge. These findings support the hypothesis that extreme opposition attitudes towards quick counts are fueled by a gap between subjective and objective knowledge. The implications of these findings for public opinion on quick count results in the Indonesian political context are briefly discussed, on how extremity in political views and conspiracy beliefs can skew individuals' perception and assessment of their knowledge.