Identification of key chlorophyll fluorescence parameters as biomarkers for dryland wheat under future climate conditions

Nowadays, climate change is the primary factor shaping the future of food and nutritional security. To investigate the interactive effects of various climate variables on photosynthetic efficiency, an experiment was conducted using 10 dryland wheat genotypes. These genotypes were exposed to different conditions: temperatures of 25 ± 3 °C and 34 ± 3 °C, carbon dioxide concentrations of 380 ± 50 ppm and 800 ± 50 ppm, and irrigation regimes of 50% field capacity and well-watered. Our results indicated that the wheat genotypes responded differently to both individual and combined climate stress factors. The traditional winter wheat genotype *Sardari*, along with the newly developed dryland wheat genotype *Ivan*, exhibited resilience to anticipated climate conditions. This resilience was reflected in enhancements in photochemical quantum efficiency parameters (Y(II), qP, and qL) under combined stress conditions. Resilient genotypes demonstrated superior regulation of the stomatal conductance (GS) and electron transport rate (ETR) under elevated temperature and CO₂ levels. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed significant correlations between chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and climate factors, such as NPQ with temperature, Y(NO) with CO₂, qL in response to drought stress, and both qP and Y(II) with the interactions among temperature, CO₂, and drought stress. Elevated CO₂ reduced the ETR and GS across all genotypes. Our findings underscore the importance of assessing not only fundamental chlorophyll fluorescence parameters like Fm and Fo but also the efficiency of NPQ and Y(II) to understand climate change impacts on dryland wheat genotypes. We suggest that these parameters could serve as valuable biomarkers for breeding programs aimed at improving plant adaptation to future dryland climate conditions.