Popular support for a universal basic income – still sensitive to playing the immigration card?

This article aims to investigate the persuasive power of immigration on people's attitudes towards a universal basic income (UBI). We use a survey experiment in which respondents, after being asked about their immediate reaction to the idea of introducing an unconditional basic income, are confronted with a counterargument referring to immigration. The experiment was undertaken in November 2021 as part of the Norwegian Citizen Panel, a representative research-purpose internet panel, and replicates a similar survey experiment carried out among Norwegian voters in 2003. In the previous study, a large share of the respondents abandoned their initial position when exposed to counterarguments referring to immigration. The results of the present experiment confirm that immigration has substantial persuasive power as a counterargument among initial supporters of a UBI, also in the contemporary Norwegian context. Contrary to the previous study, we find a strong negative relationship between scepticism about immigration and the propensity to initially support a UBI proposal, but – as in the previous study – we find that having negative attitudes towards immigration is strongly associated with a tendency to abandon an initially supportive stance. Our findings give support to the core of the so-called ‘progressive's dilemma’: that immigration may erode support for ambitious welfare policies, particularly among traditionally pro-welfare state segments of the electorate.