Mapping the threat: projecting invasive plant distribution in the tropical Andes under climate change

• Tropical mountains provide favorable habitats for invasive plant species. • Climate change is expected to open new space for the spread of invasive species. • Invasive species could gain between 1,000 and 10,000 km 2 of more suitable areas. • The areas of greatest suitability are not necessarily at the highest elevations. The high tropical mountains are renowned for their exceptional biodiversity, which plays a pivotal role in sustaining local communities and their economies. Nevertheless, these regions are confronted with considerable challenges, primarily due to the threat of invasive species, which is further compounded by the impacts of climate change. Here, we investigated the current and future distribution of invasive plant species in the tropical Andes, focusing on Páramos – ecosystems that provide essential water services to people. Species distribution modeling was used to assess the current and future suitability of 11 of the most harmful invasive species under low (SSP126), moderate (SSP370), and intense (SSP585) carbon emission scenarios. Our projections show that between 18% and 60% of the tropical mountain area (480,000 km 2 ) is currently suitable for the establishment of at least one species. Additionally, projections indicate that this area could expand by 2–4 % by the mid-century, depending on the climate change scenario. This expansion could potentially make 500–3000 km 2 of the Páramo extent suitable for up to five invasive species. Overall, our study provides relevant information for targeted management actions, such as manual removal and restoration, which are essential for limiting the expansion of invasive species to more suitable areas.