Estimation of the Real Incidence of a Contagious Disease Through a Bayesian Multilevel Model: Study of COVID-19 in Spanish Provinces

Despite the limitations of the data and the complexity and uncertainty in the propagation of COVID-19, the models were able to fit the data well and predict incidence with very low MAPE.

Authors

David Hervás (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0635-4961)
Patricia Carracedo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9352-9565)

Institutions

Universitat Politècnica de València (ES)

Publication Details

Journal: Healthcare
Published: 2024-11-19
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare12222308
Primary Topic: COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Type: article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact: 0.00

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article

Estimation of the Real Incidence of a Contagious Disease Through a Bayesian Multilevel Model: Study of COVID-19 in Spanish Provinces

David Hervás, Patricia Carracedo

Nov 19, 2024

Healthcare

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

article

Estimation of the Real Incidence of a Contagious Disease Through a Bayesian Multilevel Model: Study of COVID-19 in Spanish Provinces

David Hervás, Patricia Carracedo

November 19, 2024article en

Abstract

Despite the limitations of the data and the complexity and uncertainty in the propagation of COVID-19, the models were able to fit the data well and predict incidence with very low MAPE.

HealthcareVol. 12(22)

Universitat Politècnica de València (ES)

Good health and well-being

Openalex Percentile: Top 78%

COVID-19 epidemiological studies

DOI Open Access PDF OpenAlex

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Estimation of the Real Incidence of a Contagious Disease Through a Bayesian Multilevel Model: Study of COVID-19 in Spanish Provinces — David Hervás, Patricia Carracedo · Healthcare (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS