Investigate the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emissions on Total Fertility Rate in Taiwan: Human Development Index as Mediator

This study is to investigate the dynamic relationships among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the Human Development Index (HDI), and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Taiwan from 1992 to 2021 by using an innovative method, called quantile mediation analysis. Our findings show that CO2 emissions negatively directly affect TFR. We also find that HDI, which measures the overall development of a country, has a partly mediation effect at the distribution of TFR within 0.2 to 0.6 quantiles. Moreover, the results reveal that there exists a U-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and TFR, and between CO2 emissions and HDI at the higher 0.8 quantile level. According to these results, we suggest that the Taiwanese government continue investing in education, healthcare, and gender equality as critical human development sectors. Such investments can mitigate the negative impact of CO2 emissions on TFR, and balance environmental factors and demographic outcomes. These policy implications are crucial for policymakers and researchers in environmental science, public health, and social policy.