Mapping the Future: Climate-Induced Changes in Aboveground Live-Biomass Carbon Density Across Mexico’s Coniferous Forests

Climate variations in temperature and precipitation significantly impact forest productivity. Precipitation influences the physiology and growth of species, while temperature regulates photosynthesis, respiration, and transpiration. This study developed bioclimatic models to assess how climate change will affect the carbon density of aboveground biomass (cdAGB) in Mexico’s coniferous forests for 2050 and 2070. We used cdAGB data from the National Forest and Soils Inventory (INFyS) of Mexico and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim ver. 2.0. The best predictors of cdAGB were obtained using machine learning techniques with the “caret” library in R. The model was trained with 80% of the data and validated with the remaining 20% using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). Current cdAGB prediction maps were generated using the best predictors. Future cdAGB was calculated with the average of three general circulation models (GCMs) of future climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2. The results indicate cdAGB losses in all climate scenarios, reaching up to 15 Mg C ha−1, and could occur under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2070 in the central region of the country. Temperature-related variables are more important than precipitation variables. Bioclimatic variables can explain up to 20% of the total variance in cdAGB. The temperature in the study area is expected to increase by 2.66 °C by 2050 and 3.36 °C by 2070, while precipitation is expected to fluctuate by ±10% relative to the current values, which could geographically redistribute the cdAGB of the country’s coniferous forests. These findings underscore the need for forest management to focus not only on biodiversity conservation but also on the carbon storage capacity of these ecosystems.