The protective power of dissent? A longitudinal study on cognitive and socio-emotional determinants of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among young people in Canada

COVID-19 has elicited polarized reactions to public health measures, fueling anti-vaccination movements worldwide which indicate that vaccine hesitancy represents a common expression of dissent. We investigate changes in cognitive (i.e., trust in government, conspiracy beliefs, vaccine attitudes, and other COVID-19-related factors) and socio-emotional factors (i.e., psychological distress and social support) over time, and examine if these factors are associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. A sample of Canadian young adults (<i>N</i> = 2,695; 18 to 40 years old) responded to an online survey in May/June 2021 (after the first vaccination campaign) and then in November 2021 (after vaccine mandates were introduced). Based on survey answers, participants were categorized as "not hesitant", "hesitant", and "do not intend to get vaccinated" at each time point. Results from generalized estimating equation models indicate that vaccination hesitancy decreased over time. The importance attributed to specific COVID-19-related factors (e.g., research and science about COVID-19 vaccines, opinions of friends and family) decreased whereas psychological distress increased over time. Cognitive and socio-emotional factors were associated with vaccine hesitancy, with participants who did not intend to get vaccinated reporting the lowest psychological distress scores. We argue that dissent may be an empowering way for young people to restore a sense of personal agency via the opposition to a system perceived as illegitimate and/or unfair. These results raise important questions about potential collateral effects of top-down government and public health interventions in times of crisis.