The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility Rates in China: An Empirical Analysis Using ARIMA Modeling

Abstract: This paper conducts an in-depth empirical analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on fertility rates in China using ARIMA modeling and forecasting techniques. The study reveals a significant and fundamental decline in birth rates throughout the pandemic, indicating that the long-term downward trend is more pronounced than ever. This unprecedented drop underscores the severity and uniqueness of the COVID-19 crisis's influence on reproductive behavior. The findings align with prior research on the global economic and health challenges' effects, but the scale and speed of changes during the pandemic remain unparalleled. These dynamics highlight the necessity to reassess and strengthen population management strategies and healthcare systems, particularly in reproductive health and family planning services. Despite utilizing a comprehensive dataset, limitations regarding data scope and sample size persist. Future research should broaden data scope and sample size, analyze regional differences, undertake long-term longitudinal studies, and incorporate multivariable analysis to better understand the pandemic's impact on fertility decisions.