A comparative analysis of deep-learning models for dam discharge forecasting for disaster management

ABSTRACT This paper represents a comprehensive study of dam water discharge prediction using various deep-learning models. The main aim of this paper is to provide a data-driven solution for effective water resource management and thereby controlling the effects of floods and droughts. The Malampuzha dam, which has a spillway, a right bank canal (RBC), and a left bank canal (LBC), is considered for the study. While the spillway helps to control the water level in the reservoir by allowing extra water to flow downstream during times of severe rainfall or high inflow, hence reducing the risk of floods, the LBC and RBC are intended to divert water for agriculture. Altogether, 10 years of consecutive meteorological and dam-related data are utilized for training and testing the models in forecasting water discharge through LBC, RBC, and the spillway. Different deep-learning models, namely, long short-term memory, bi-directional long-short term memory, recurrent neural network, gated recurrent unit, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), deep neural network, autoencoder, and residual networks are explored in predicting the accuracy of dam water discharge. After testing eight deep-learning models, it was discovered that 1D-CNN performed well in predicting the discharge of water.