Enhancing water security through advanced modeling: integrating deep learning and a novel metaheuristic optimization algorithm for accurate pan evaporation prediction

ABSTRACT This study evaluates and enhances machine learning models for predicting pan evaporation under diverse climatic conditions. Five fundamental machine learning models were employed and tested across four different stations. Subsequent comparisons were made with advanced techniques, including long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. An innovative approach was introduced, combining LSTM with Binary Al-Biruni Earth Radius (BER–LSTM). This hybrid method was benchmarked against other optimization techniques. The BER–LSTM model consistently outperformed other models across all stations and time scales, achieving up to a 97.54% improvement in root mean square error (RMSE) compared to standard LSTM on daily time scales. Compared to simpler models like Multilayer Perceptron and Support Vector Regressor, BER–LSTM showed even more substantial improvements, with up to a 99.03% reduction in RMSE. The BER–LSTM model demonstrates superior predictive capabilities for pan evaporation across varied climatic conditions, offering significant improvements over both traditional and advanced machine learning techniques. This approach shows promise for enhancing evaporation forecasting in diverse environmental contexts.