Factors and structural paths of the changes in carbon emissions in China's provincial construction industries

The changes in the carbon emissions in China's provincial construction industries are of high complexity. It is essential to understand the changes in the construction carbon emissions (CCEs) in China on the provincial scale. This study evaluates the factors and structural paths of the changes in provincial CCEs in China between 2012 and 2017 using the structural path decomposition analysis. The results show that the emission intensity effect and production structure effect contributed greatly to the reduction of CCEs across various regions, while the final demand effect had contrary impacts. The local nonmetallic mineral products industry (c13), metal smelting and pressing industry (c14), and electricity industry (c24) generally contributed significantly to the emission intensity effect, production structure effect, and final demand effect across most regions. The consumption of local c13, c14, and c24 by the construction industry (c27), namely "local c13→c27", "local c14→c27", and "local c24→c27" were generally the important structural paths of the CCEs changes across various regions. Nonlocal industries such as Hebei c14 and nonlocal structural paths such as "Hebei c14→c27" contributed substantially to the CCEs changes in many regions such as Beijing. The emission intensity effect, first-order production structure effect, and final demand effect typically dominated the effects of the critical structural paths of the CCEs changes across various regions. This study can help policymakers better understand the changes in China's provincial CCEs to formulate region-specific emission reduction measures and provide a comprehensive reference for related research.