Invasion risk of non-native insects to agricultural lands: a screening for Croatia

Increasing global trade in agricultural and horticultural products coupled with climate change are amongst the main drivers of the global spread of non-native insect species.This trend has substantial impacts on agroecosystems and economies in general.The aim of this study was to screen non-native insect species for their risk of invasiveness in Croatian agricultural lands under current and future climatic conditions.The invasion risk of 18 extant and eight horizon species was determined with a high level of confidence.Of the 26 species screened, 65.4% and 92.3% were ranked as high (or very high) risk under current and future climate conditions, respectively.The results of this study are expected to help policy makers to prioritise the management of both extant and horizon non-native insect species and to assist decision-makers in identifying candidate species for comprehensive, follow-up risk assessment.It is anticipated that the present findings will also contribute to the refinement of national legislation to control and regulate more effectively the spread of non-native insect species in Croatia also accounting for changing climatic conditions.