Long-term effects of the Targeting the Ultra Poor program—A reproducibility and replicability assessment of Banerjee et al. (2021)

Abstract Banerjee, Duflo, and Sharma (BDS, 2021, American Economic Review: Insights, 3, 471–86) conduct a 10-year follow-up of a randomized transfer program in West Bengal. BDS find large effects on consumption, food security, income, and health. We conduct a replicability assessment. First, we successfully reproduce the results, thanks to a perfectly documented reproduction package. Results are robust across alternative specifications. We furthermore assess the paper's pre-specification diligence and the reporting in terms of external and construct validity. While the paper refers to a pre-registration, it lacks a pre-analysis plan. Assessing the validity of findings for other contexts is difficult absent necessary details about the exact treatment delivery.