The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Abstract Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr −1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr −1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr −1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr −1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr −1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr −1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr −1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2024-11-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4
Citations
17
Primary Topic
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.80

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article

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Xu Yue, Daniel Kennedy, Frédéric Chevallier, Pierre Friedlingstein et al.
17 citations
Communications Earth & Environment
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
4.80
article

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Xu Yue, Daniel Kennedy, Frédéric Chevallier, Pierre Friedlingstein, Vivek Arora, Naveen Chandra, Paul I. Palmer, Sönke Zaehle, Atul K. Jain, Matthew J. McGrath, Jürgen Knauer, Christian Rödenbeck, Julia Pongratz, Stefanie Falk, Prabir K. Patra, Michael O’Sullivan, Almut Arneth, Thomas Gasser, Stephen A. Sitch, Clemens Schwingshackl, Benjamin Poulter, R. A. Houghton, Wenping Yuan, Philippe Ciais, Dongxu Yang, Wouter Peters, Yosuke Niwa, Anthony P. Walker, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Etsushi Kato, Thais M. Rosan, Hanqin Tian, Liang Feng, Qing Sun
article en
17 citations

Abstract

Abstract Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr −1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr −1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr −1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr −1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr −1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr −1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr −1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 5(1)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE), Boston College (US), NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), University of Bern (CH), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH), Goddard Space Flight Center (US), Woodwell Climate Research Center (US), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), École Polytechnique (FR), University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US), Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN), University of Exeter (GB), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR), Université Paris-Saclay (FR), Japan Meteorological Agency (JP), Sorbonne Université (FR), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), National Centre for Earth Observation (GB), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (US), Institute of Applied Energy (JP), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CN), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (DE), Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (JP), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), Ecosystem Sciences (AU), Meteorological Research Institute (JP), Western Sydney University (AU), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE), Wageningen University & Research (NL), University of Edinburgh (GB)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Boston College, University of Bern, UK Research and Innovation, University of Exeter, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Université Paris-Saclay, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Western Sydney University, Sorbonne Université, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Goddard Space Flight Center, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, Natural Environment Research Council, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Wageningen University and Research, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, National Centre for Earth Observation, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
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Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
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