Citrus Industry Agglomeration and Citrus Green Total Factor Productivity in China: An Empirical Analysis Utilizing a Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model

In the context of increasingly severe resource and environmental constraints, examining the impact of citrus industry agglomeration on the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of citrus is of great importance for the sustainable development of the citrus industry and is crucial for promoting the green, high-quality growth of China’s agricultural sector. In this study, the global Malmquist–Luenberger productivity index (GMLPI) model was used to measure the GTFP of mandarins and tangerines based on inter-provincial panel data from China’s major citrus-producing regions between 2007 and 2022. The dynamic spatial Durbin model was employed to empirically analyze the effects of citrus industry agglomeration on the GTFP of mandarins and tangerines, including the disaggregation of its spatial spillover effects. The results indicate that, in terms of temporal dynamics, the GTFP, technical progress index (GTC), and technical efficiency index (GEC) of mandarins and tangerines significantly fluctuated, especially during the period from 2007 to 2015. Regional disparities in GTFP and the GTC are more pronounced for mandarins than for tangerines, while the GEC shows greater regional disparities for tangerines than for mandarins. The intensification of citrus industry agglomeration has had a significant positive impact on the GTFP of mandarins and tangerines, both locally and in neighboring regions. The spatial correlation of the green total factor productivity of mandarins and tangerines fluctuated; mandarins showed significant spatial aggregation in some years, while tangerines showed significant spatial dispersion in several years. The local Moran scatterplot further reveals the significant negative spatial autocorrelation of mandarin and tangerine green total factor productivity from 2007 to 2022. The direct, indirect, and total effects of citrus industry agglomeration on the GTFP of mandarins and tangerines are significant and positive in both the short- and long-term, with short-term benefits exceeding long-term effects. Consequently, enhancing regional cooperation and exchange while advancing citrus industry agglomeration is essential for sustained productivity growth.