Enhancing Supply Chain Efficiency with Predictive Analytics: A Machine Learning Approach to Dynamic Lead Time Prediction in a Chemical Industry

We develop and employ a four-step methodological approach for predicting the lead time delays in all echelons of a supply chain (SC). The first step of the methodological approach involves a critical synthesis of academic research efforts for identifying the main sources of delays in all echelons of a supply chain. The second step involves the development of questionnaires for validating the findings of the research through workshops with industry stakeholders. The third step involves the development of a suite of machine learning (ML) models, namely, Random Forest Regression, Decision Tree Regression, and Linear Regression. These models were selected based on their prevalence in the recent literature and their ability to handle linear and nonlinear relationships between multiple variables. The final fourth step involves the implementation of the suite of machine learning models in the real case of a Hellenic chemical manufacturing supply chain. The implementation results reveal that Random Forest Regression exhibits the highest predictive accuracy throughout all stages of the supply chain, achieving the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE), ranging from 0.5 to 7% in the examined supply chain echelons.