Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three types of uncertainty

How do people search for information when they are given the opportunity to freely explore their options? Previous research has suggested that people focus on reducing uncertainty before making a decision, but it remains unclear how exactly they do so and whether they do so consistently. We present an analysis of over 1,000,000 information-search decisions made by over 2,500 individuals in a decisions-from-experience setting that cleanly separates information search from choice. Using a data-driven approach supported by a formal measurement framework, we examine how people allocate samples to options and how they decide to terminate search. Three major insights emerge. First, predecisional information search has at least three drivers that can be interpreted as reducing three types of uncertainty: structural, estimation, and computational. Second, the selection of these drivers of information search is adaptive, sequential, and guided by environmental knowledge that integrates prior expectations, task instructions, and personal experiences. Third, predecisional information search exhibits substantial interindividual heterogeneity, with individuals recruiting different drivers of information search. Together, these insights suggest that human information search is complex in ways that cannot be fully explained by monolithic accounts of information search, including proposals focused on estimation uncertainty or cost-benefit analysis. We conclude that broader theories of human information-search behavior are necessary.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2024-11-15
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2311714121
Citations
7
Primary Topic
Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.75

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article

Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three types of uncertainty

Dirk U. Wulff, Mikhail S. Spektor
7 citations
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
3.75
article

Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three types of uncertainty

Dirk U. Wulff, Mikhail S. Spektor
article en
7 citations

Abstract

How do people search for information when they are given the opportunity to freely explore their options? Previous research has suggested that people focus on reducing uncertainty before making a decision, but it remains unclear how exactly they do so and whether they do so consistently. We present an analysis of over 1,000,000 information-search decisions made by over 2,500 individuals in a decisions-from-experience setting that cleanly separates information search from choice. Using a data-driven approach supported by a formal measurement framework, we examine how people allocate samples to options and how they decide to terminate search. Three major insights emerge. First, predecisional information search has at least three drivers that can be interpreted as reducing three types of uncertainty: structural, estimation, and computational. Second, the selection of these drivers of information search is adaptive, sequential, and guided by environmental knowledge that integrates prior expectations, task instructions, and personal experiences. Third, predecisional information search exhibits substantial interindividual heterogeneity, with individuals recruiting different drivers of information search. Together, these insights suggest that human information search is complex in ways that cannot be fully explained by monolithic accounts of information search, including proposals focused on estimation uncertainty or cost-benefit analysis. We conclude that broader theories of human information-search behavior are necessary.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 121(47)
University of Basel (CH), University of Warwick (GB), Max Planck Institute for Human Development (DE), VinUniversity (VN)
National Science Foundation, Fundación BBVA, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Saskatoon City Hospital Foundation, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Stiftung Suzanne und Hans Biäsch zur Förderung der Angewandten Psychologie, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Ministerio de Asuntos Económicos y Transformación Digital, Gobierno de España, Agencia Estatal de Investigación
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
3.75
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