An examination of the fluctuation and long-term persistence of drought regimes in the Jing River basin using the PDSI–SWAT model

ABSTRACT Droughts are becoming more widespread around the world. Drought warnings have become more complex as environmental factors affect drought severity. Furthermore, droughts have an increasing impact on social and economic growth. As a result, it is critical to analyze drought patterns and previous drought events. The study used the Jing River basin in China as an example and employed hydro-meteorological data from 1961 to 2013 to feed into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. Through the persistence analysis, it can be found that the current drought will likely remain, with drought deepening in arid areas and water scarcity in humid ones. The findings indicate that monitoring the sub-basin for signals of inconsistent droughts is necessary to improve drought early warning systems and relief efforts, especially in areas with slightly lower precipitation. As a result, this paper suggests a basin drought zoning technique that may adapt to future local conditions, enabling the implementation of more efficient drought-relief measures in response to shifting drought conditions and patterns. This will bring new insights into the best framework for drought-relief strategies in various places.