Analysis of future water demands in Al-Madinah (1990–2030) based on the modified IPAT model and sheared socio-economic pathways scenarios

Abstract Arid regions such as Saudi Arabia are facing water scarcity and availability issues and experiencing growing pressure by rapid water consumption. Determining the main driving forces contributing to rising water demands and future water demand prediction are considered the cornerstone for developing a good sustainable management plan. Al-Madinah city was chosen as a case study. In this study, the population, affluence, and technology (IPAT) model has been modified to apply in the water sector to analyse water needs in Al-Madinah from 1990 to 2020 and examines factors including population, GDP-per capita, agricultural lands/GDP and built-up area/agricultural lands. In addition, Sheared Socio-economic Scenarios (SSPs) have been developed to predict water demands in Al-Madinah from 2020 to 2030. The results confirm that population was the most important in explaining water consumption trends. Moreover, water demand under all IPCC_ SSP scenarios is expected to increase by between 17 to 28%. The scenarios of SSP3 and SSP4 are projected to experience an increase in water demands by an average of 25% and 26%, respectively. In contrast, the water demand is forecasted to lower under the SSP1 and SSP5 by around 20% and 17%, respectively. This evaluation could highly reinforce and improve sustainable water resource management strategies, which have recently become increasingly essential to face growing water challenges and demands.