Sociopolitical shocks and global value chains transformation: insights from manufacturing MNEs operating in Russia

Purpose This study aims to explore how multinational enterprises (MNEs) recalibrated their global value chains (GVCs) in response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions, framing sanctions as political instruments that reshape power relations in global capitalism. Design/methodology/approach Employing qualitative historical content analysis of 181 manufacturing MNEs and drawing on institutional theory and political economy perspectives, the study analyses newspaper sources triangulated with company statements and institutional databases. Findings The study identifies short-term (low-profile, circumvention), mid-term (nearshoring, friendshoring) and long-term (market exit, asset swaps) strategies, reflecting institutional pressures, reputational risk and supply chain mobility. Findings emphasise sector-specific challenges and highlight the role of Global South firms in reshaping trade patterns. Research limitations/implications Reliance on secondary data captures publicly stated rationales rather than confidential decision-making processes. Future research should use primary methods to deepen understanding of firm-level strategic reasoning under geopolitical shocks. Practical implications Managers should proactively assess geopolitical risks and diversify GVCs to build resilience under sociopolitical shocks. For policymakers, the findings underscore the importance of designing sanctions regimes that account for GVC complexity and avoid unintended consequences such as circumvention or redistribution of market power to non-sanctioning states. Originality/value The study enriches institutional perspectives on geopolitical dynamics by linking GVC restructuring to debates on business power and inequality, introducing a typology of GVC responses that validates and extends existing frameworks. Its distinctive contribution is a political-economy reframing of sanctions as redistributive instruments of economic statecraft. Rather than simply isolating a target economy, sanctions reallocate market access in ways that largely reproduce, rather than challenge, existing capitalist hierarchies, redistributing value to state-backed entrants, opportunistic intermediaries, and domestic acquirers while displacing risk onto workers.