A multicriteria decision support method for evaluating radical schemes at conceptual design stage

Radical innovation can confer a competitive advantage upon enterprises , enabling them to advance in an increasingly competitive marketplace. However, due to the high uncertainty in the prospect of radical innovation, radical schemes are highly susceptible to failure and investment loss. Enterprises that are inclined to implement a radical scheme must confront the challenging task of accurately evaluating the investment value of such an initiative. This paper seeks to evaluate the viability of investing in radical schemes by analyzing the changes in their characteristics relative to mainstream products. Initially, a preliminary model for evaluating the market potential of radical schemes is established through the collection and analysis of existing case studies . Subsequently, for the schemes with high expected market potential in the preliminary evaluation, the value potential of the schemes is further examined through data envelopment analysis based on mining of competitive schemes from the patent database. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is validated through an evaluation of two illustrative cases.