Morpho-environmental variability for Scilla L. The biogeographic dynamism under climate change scenarios

This paper explores the correlations between morphological variability and range dynamics in western Eurasian-Mediterranean flora through a fluctuating asymmetry (FA) perspective across ten climate scenarios. We investigate the potential distribution of Scilla L. and its thermopluviometric correlations, and compare them with other three genera analysed previously, for western Eurasia and northern Africa (Baldellia Parl., Jasione L., and Ononis L. -Viscosae and Natrix sections-), considering past (22 Kyrs), present, and future conditions (2081-2100). By comparing "overlapped areas" (OA) with "non-overlapped areas" (NOA), we found two distinct groups of responses among genera: Scilla show higher morphological variability in NOAs, while Baldellia concentrate variability in OAs (lower FAs). Jasione and Ononis represent intermediate responses (higher FAs). Notably, OAs predominate in the western and central Mediterranean basin, with significant NOA variability in the eastern region under restricted climatic conditions. Our study highlights correlations between morphological variability and range dynamics in western Eurasian and Mediterranean flora, emphasising the importance of considering the FA approach when examining responses to changing climate scenarios, here discussed in terms of the potential robustness and resilience of genera analysed.