Techno-Economic Outlooks for the Operation of Zero-Emission Heavy-Duty Trucks: Their Implications on Fleet Operators, Cargo Shippers, and Vehicle Designers

Abstract Heavy-duty trucking is an essential economic sector and the logistical backbone of the American and global economy. However, heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) contribute significant CO2 emissions to global warming. HDVs are hard to decarbonize due to the large amount of onboard energy storage required for the range and towing performance needed. Currently, there are two potential promising alternative drivetrain architectures to replace existing diesel fleets: lithium battery-electric vehicle (Li-BEV) and hydrogen fuel-cell-electric vehicle (H2 FCEV). While these alternative-fuel HDVs are on their way toward technical maturity and commercialization, the techno-economic implications of operating a zero-emission fleet remain largely uncertain to stakeholders in the trucking industry. In this study, we developed a multi-dimensional techno-economic model to evaluate the technical constraints of onboard energy storage in HDVs and compare the operational technoeconomics of zero-emission drivetrains against diesel vehicles, using the perspectives of fleet operators and cargo shippers. We have found that although Li-BEV drivetrains show promise in decarbonizing heavy-duty vehicles, they are limited to the short to medium range (< 500 mi) and in applications where freight capacity is not a high priority. In the long-haul freight-carrying scenario above 750 miles, H2 FCEVs are shown to be a better candidate for replacing diesel heavy trucks than Li-BEVs, due to a higher cargo capacity. However, to make H2 FCEVs more competitive in the HDV sector, more proactive investments and infrastructure developments are necessary to establish a mature hydrogen supply chain and to further reduce the price of hydrogen fuel to 2 USD/kgH2. It is also apparent that the operational techno-economics and freight performance of the zero-emission options remain out-competed by existing diesel fleets. Governments would need to put forth aggressive fiscal and regulatory policies to promote the competitiveness of zero-emission drivetrains and limit the use of diesel vehicles.