Barriers to Sustainable System Evolution: a Simulation Study Exploring the Transition From Private to Public Transportation

Abstract Road transport networks are complex distributed systems that present the most challenges in the management and use phase of their lifecycles. As traffic congestion and air pollution within urban city centers rise, authorities are implementing more restrictions and regulations to address these challenges. Additionally, public transportation, car-sharing, sustainable vehicles, and Mobility-as-a-Service have all increased in popularity as solutions to these issues. However, there is evidence that these new trends might not help as expected. The main objective of this study is to understand the dynamics of transportation network evolution from a systems perspective. Focusing on system capacity, and population characteristics, we seek to evaluate how different ratios of users commuting with either public transport or private car affect network congestion. The hypothesis tested is: as the ratio between public buses and private cars is modified to include more buses, the dynamics of the transportation system change, impacting system evolution towards more sustainable modes of transportation. Contributions are conceptual models documented through the overview, design concepts, and details protocol, as well as an analysis of the results obtained. The results indicate the evolution path taken toward more sustainable transportation can severely mitigate system-level objectives. Significant recommendations to city planners are included to help manage the complexity of transport systems, leading to the design and operation of smarter and sustainable cities. Future research will focus on customizing the model to represent real cities and determine if the same system evolution guidance applies.