Evolution of Regional Innovation Strategies Towards the Transition to Green Energy in Europe 2014–2027

This paper explores the factors influencing regions’ commitment to the EU’s green energy transition during the 2021–2027 period, with a particular focus on the impact of prior commitments and fossil fuel dependence. Using multimodel regression analysis along with a null classification approach with large language models, we assess how regions’ existing green energy initiatives, their dependence on fossil fuels, and specific energy targets shape their progress towards the EU Green Deal goals. The results confirm path dependency in regional energy policies, where regions with prior investments in decarbonization and energy infrastructure show greater commitment in the current period. Fossil-fuel-dependent regions, on the other hand, face structural barriers slowing their transition to green energy. In addition, the study highlights the selective prioritization of decarbonization and energy efficiency goals, while goals such as consumer empowerment and offshore wind energy remain undervalued. The findings underscore the need for a more comprehensive, sustainable approach to energy transition, particularly in regions with significant dependence on fossil fuels. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications for achieving a holistic and equitable energy transition across all EU regions.