Spurious Correlations in Terrorism Studies

Attempts to understand ideologically inspired extremism commonly involve identifying covariates behind violence and their circumstances.This commentary argues that most of these covariations can only be spurious.Moreover, because these studies generally do not seek a specific causal mechanism, the identified covariations may have overlooked a causal explanation entirely.This core research deficiency is due to a methodological issue and has little to do with any primary data inadequacies.Invoking a recently published scholarship, I argue this to be the case regarding Sharia-invoking violent extremism.This commentary discusses the implications and suggests a way forward in understanding violent extremism.In 2014, a frustrated Marc Sageman called out what he saw as "stagnation in terrorism research" when he could not provide a consensus reason for why someone turns to political violence. 1 This is due to two reasons in his view: one, because the intelligence community, which possesses classified primary source data, is short on methodological skills to analyze them, and two, because the academic community, which possesses the necessary methodological skills, lacks access to the relevant primary source data. 2 Fast forward to June 2024.A research note published in this journal asserts that "an analysis of the current 50 most cited journal articles on radicalization and deradicalization finds that much of what counts as scholarly knowledge of radicalization and deradicalization lacks a proper empirical foundation and utility for policymakers" while calling for more focused empirically driven studies. 3 If anything, this is a persistently confusing state of terrorism studies that cannot be wished away.Could the real issue in this research have little to do with empirical data but rather with a faulty methodology?If so, what is it, and where do we go from here?An eventual goal of studying an emergent form of ideologically based violent extremism is to find a causal explanation through a theory.By identifying a cause, remedial measures may follow.Theories can revolutionize our thinking, transform our understanding of important issues, and explain confounding puzzles.Consider Charles Darwin's theory of evolution.It states that new species arise naturally through a process of evolution.Darwin's theory changed many people's thinking about the nature of life itself, including human origins.