Research on the efficiency and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural green development in central cities of the Yangtze River Delta

Introduction Agricultural green development (AGD) prioritizes sustainable growth by integrating economic, ecological, and social dimensions, aiming to harmonize agricultural economic development with environmental protection and social progress. Methods This study integrates the three-stage super-efficiency DEA-SBM model with the BP algorithm, creating an advanced DEA-SBM-BP model to overcome the shortcomings of traditional DEA in evaluation and management processes. The study further applies the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation (KDE), and Moran’s index to assess and forecast the efficiency and spatiotemporal evolution patterns of green agricultural development in key cities within the Yangtze River Delta. Results The analysis shows that AGD in the central city of the Yangtze River Delta is overall balanced; however, substantial variations exist among cities within individual provinces. Factors like macroeconomic conditions, workforce quality, and policy support play a crucial role in promoting the efficiency of AGD. Among these, macroeconomic development level has a negative impact, while labor quality and policy support exhibit bidirectional effects. Infrastructure construction, digitalization of agricultural economy, and rural security have become key factors in the green development of modern agriculture. The green advancement of agriculture in the central Yangtze River Delta region typically exhibits a marked clustering effect; however, the local clustering reveals a trend toward dispersed development. Discussion Despite the emergence of new characteristics in agricultural production in China within the context of high-quality development, differences in resource endowments and economic structures among cities continue to be significant factors contributing to regional imbalances and changes in the agglomeration patterns of agricultural development.