Effects of Natural Disasters on West Africa Sahel’s Economy: The Case of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger

The Sahel region is facing the adverse effects of the natural disasters due to the drought and floods which are the most frequent events. These effects can be spread and affected the all the Sahel States economy. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze the effects of these natural disasters on the macroeconomic variables such as production, consumption, investment and inflation in the three (3) the northern central Sahel States. To do so, the panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR) is run on the World Bank and the International Emergency Disasters Database (EM-DAT) data from 1990 to 2021. The results revealed that the occurrence of drought shock generates significantly a negative impact on the GDP per capita at 5% level across the northern central Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger). Also, the lagged of the macroeconomic variables such as production, investment and inflation have respectively a significant and positive impact on consumption at 5% level, production at 5% level and consumption at 10% level. Furthermore, the results show an asymmetry of natural disaster shocks at the scale of the northern central Sahel States but these shocks are symmetrical in pairs. As a result, the appropriate policies must make to absorb these shocks and avoid any hysteresis effect.