Shale Fracture Static Stability Evaluation Method Based on 3D Discrete Fracture Model: A Case Study on the Luzhou Area in Southern Sichuan Basin, SW China

Abstract The stress interference in deep shale may lead to shale fracturing and instability and consequently results in engineering risks such as casing deformation in horizontal wells. Therefore, in the early stages of shale gas exploration and development, it is of great significance to evaluate the stability of shale fractures in advance. The stability evaluation of shale reservoir faults can be mainly divided into two categories at present: quantitative evaluation of single faults and qualitative evaluation of wide-range faults. The quantitative evaluation of single faults primarily relies on numerical simulation techniques, while the qualitative evaluation of wide-range faults primarily employs geophysical methods. Both methods are difficult to meet the needs of shale gas exploration and development. The shale fracture stability evaluation method based on 3D discrete fracture model which is developed in this article can quantitatively evaluate the static stability of wide-range shale fractures in the early stage of exploration and development. In this article, seismic geometric attributes were calculated, and fracture seismic facies was established by means of the Bayesian probabilistic cluster analysis method. Then, 3D discrete fracture modeling under the constraint of fracture seismic facies was performed to establish a discrete fracture model. Finally, according to the Mohr–Coulomb criterion, the shear stress and effective normal stress of discrete fracture were calculated by using the formation pressure data in other exploration and development results and the regional in situ stress obtained through seismic prestack inversion. And thus, the stability evaluation of the fractures in shale reservoirs was eventually completed. In addition, this method was verified by using the casing deformation points in some actual shale-gas horizontal wells, the actual small fault points, and microseismic data. It indicates that the method has higher accuracy and is better applicable to the early shale gas exploration and development.