Abstract 4122008: Bayesian modeling to forecast mortality due to Ischemic Heart Disease, Stroke, and Peripheral Artery Disease in Brazil until 2040

Introduction: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, specifically ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, and peripheral artery disease (PAD) together are among the leading causes of cardiovascular mortality in Brazil. As the obesity, hypertension, and diabetes rates in the Brazil continue to increase, projecting mortality rates related to these conditions are important for guiding health policy. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that there are differences in the future trends of IHD, stroke and PAD in Brazil. Aims: We sought to forecast the trends in IHD, stroke, and PAD in Brazil until 2040 to fill in this important knowledge gap and inform public health policy development. Methods: We collected the annual death counts for IHD, stroke, and PAD and the mid-year population estimates in 5-year age brackets (40 – 79 years) between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease. We calculated the annual crude and age-standardized mortality rates (per 100 000 residents) for IHD, stroke and PAD between 1990 and 2019. Using this observed data, we estimated the projected mortality rates for these conditions till 2040 using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. Results: Brazil`s population (aged 40-79 years) will increase by 237.5% between 1990 and 2040. Nationally, compared to 2019, the age standardized IHD mortality is projected to reduce by 31.66 % [2019: 131.13, 2040:89.6 (IQR: 65.83, 113.37)] and stroke rates are estimated to reduce by 16.75% [2019: 91.09, 2040: 75.83 (IQR: 51.68, 99.98)]. However, PAD rates are projected to increase by 1.2% in the same period [2019: 1.58, 2040: 1.66 (IQR: 1.24, 2.07)]. The age standardized IHD and stroke mortality rates will reduce in males and females. However, the age standardized PAD rates will increase in females [2019: 1.33, 2040: 1.48 (IQR: 1.06, 1.89), 11.28% difference] and remain reasonably constant among males. Conclusion: In Brazil, the age standardized rates for IHD and stroke mortality are projected to decline till 2040. However, PAD related mortality is likely to be an important issue among females. Our findings highlight the need for early and targeted interventions to address these potential cardiovascular health disparities.