Abstract 4132351: Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor Levels Predict Incident Cardio-Kidney-Metabolic Disease Risk

Introduction: Given the rising global incidence of cardio-kidney-metabolic (CKM) syndrome, there is an urgent need for novel risk prediction strategies for CKM disease. Hypothesis: As soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) levels have been associated with the development of cardio-kidney disease, we hypothesized that elevated suPAR levels would predict incident CKM disease risk. Methods: A total of 25,596 UK Biobank participants without CKM disease at enrollment were analyzed for the association of suPAR levels and incident CKM disease. CKM disease was defined as the first occurrence of CVD (heart failure, atrial fibrillation/flutter, coronary heart disease, stroke, and peripheral artery disease), chronic kidney disease (CKD), or metabolic disease (type 2 diabetes mellitus and obesity). Incident CVD, CKD, and metabolic disease were also analyzed separately as secondary outcomes. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to visualize the association between suPAR levels and the primary composite CKM outcome. Competing-risk regression, while accounting for competing non-CKM disease death, was performed to examine the association between suPAR levels and the primary composite CKM outcome. Models were adjusted for demographics, traditional risk factors, and CRP levels. Results: The mean age was 56.0 (SD 8.3) years, 44% were male, and 94% were White. suPAR levels were associated with a significantly higher rate of composite CKM events (P<0.001) (Figure 1). During a median follow-up of 13.5 [IQR 1.7] years, 5,012 (20.0%) composite CKM events, 3,599 (8.3%) incident CVD events, 863 (3.4%) incident CKD events, and 1,397 (4.7%) incident metabolic disease events occurred. suPAR levels (per SD) significantly predicted the primary composite CKM outcome (sHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.19-1.27) after adjustment. suPAR levels (per SD) also significantly predicted incident CVD (sHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.19-1.29), incident CKD (sHR 1.41, 95% CI 1.30-1.53), and incident metabolic disease (sHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.10-1.24) after adjustment. Conclusion(s): In this large, longitudinal cohort study of UKB participants, plasma suPAR levels were a significant predictor of CKM disease risk, independent of demographics, traditional risk factors, and CRP levels.