Abstract 4137836: Association of AHA PREVENT Risk Score with Cardiovascular Mortality Across Social Determinants of Health: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction/Background: The AHA PREVENT risk calculator was recently developed to accurately predict the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, including incident heart failure, stroke, and coronary heart disease. However, the risk prediction of this tool for CVD mortality overall and among groups with increasing social determinants of health (SDOH) burden in a multi-ethnic nationally representative cohort of American adults is unclear. Methods: This retrospective study included adult NHANES participants (age > 30 years) from 1998-2018 cycles without known CVD. Individuals without data for risk estimation were excluded. AHA PREVENT risk was scored from 0 to 100. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the risk of CVD mortality, accounting for 7 SDOH measures (employment, family income, food security, health access, health insurance, housing instability, and being married or living with partner). Population was stratified based on cumulative SDOH burden (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, > 5 unfavorable SDOH markers). Model discrimination was assessed using C-statistics in these groups. Results: Among 19,887 participants (median age 53 years, 49% Female, 54% White, 19% Black), a 1% increase in AHA PREVENT Risk score calculation was associated with 13% higher risk of CVD mortality (HR adj 1.13, 95% CI: 1.12-1.14) with C-statistic of 0.91. While AHA PREVENT Risk score was predictive of CVD mortality across the SDOH burden strata, there was a decline in C-statistic from 0.91 among those without any unfavorable SDOH to 0.81 among those with > 5 unfavorable SDOH measures. Conclusion: The AHA PREVENT Risk score is predictive of CVD mortality even when accounting for SDOH measures. However, the risk discrimination decreases among individuals with a higher SDOH burden. Further investigation is needed to identify means to improve CVD risk prediction among disadvantaged people with high unfavorable SDOH burden.