Advancing Water Security and Agricultural Productivity: A Case Study of Transboundary Cooperation Opportunities in the Kabul River Basin

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) is witnessing frequent flood and drought events that influence food production and distribution. The KRB is one of the world’s poorest regions regarding food security. Food security issues in the KRB include shifts in short-term climate cycles with significant river flow variations that result in inadequate water distribution. Due to the lack of hydro-infrastructure, low irrigation efficiency, and continuing wars, the Afghanistan portion of the KRB has experienced low agricultural land expansion opportunities for food production. This research assesses the relationship between flood mitigation, flow balances, and food production and, cumulatively, assesses the social and economic well-being of the population of the KRB. SWAT modeling and climate change (CCSM4) implications are utilized to assess how these relationships impact the social and economic well-being of the population in the KRB. The intricacies of transboundary exchange and cooperation indicate that the conservation of ~38% of the water volume would nearly double the low flows in the dry season and result in the retention of ~2B m3/y of water for agricultural developmental use. Results show that the peak flood flow routing in reservoirs on the Afghanistan side of the KRB would have a substantial positive impact on agricultural products and, therefore, food security. Water volume conservation has the potential to provide ~44% more arable land with water, allowing a ~51% increase in crop yield, provided that improved irrigation efficiency techniques are utilized.