The paradox of product scarcity: Catalyzing the speed of innovation diffusion

Abstract Product shortages are known to slow down the diffusion process. However, we counterintuitively theorize and empirically demonstrate that under specific conditions of social influence, the diffusion process may be accelerated by early product scarcity. Using an Agent-Based framework and Genetic Algorithm-based estimation, we analyzed 20 product categories to identify the critical trade-off influencing diffusion: the interplay of the social influence ratio of waiting customers to adopters, the external influence, and level of product scarcity. Strategic managerial actions can accelerate the adoption of products. For example, in the case of fitness trackers, we were able to simulate speed-up by up to two years compared to the standard Bass model. Importantly, we introduce a novel framework to study competition dynamics, analyzing how the timing of market entry and the production capacity of competitors, along with the initial installed capacity of the pioneering firm affect diffusion speed. This acceleration, whether due to managerial foresight or serendipity, necessitates careful orchestration to harness the enthusiasm of waiting customers and strategically allocate marketing spending on social media platforms, thereby differentially amplifying the influence of adopters and potential customers.