Realizing National Targets through Generation Expansion Planning: A Transition Energy Case Study of Java-Bali Power System, Indonesia

Indonesia has committed to a comprehensive energy transition strategy, aiming to achieve a 31% new and renewable energy (NRE) mix by 2050 and net zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 or earlier. As an interim milestone, Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) target calls for reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, focusing on cleaner energy adoption and reduced fossil fuel dependency. This study evaluates Indonesia’s potential to realize these national targets, focusing on the Java-Bali power system, which accounts for 70% of the country’s electricity consumption. Using the MoMANI-OSeMOSYS model. Two scenarios were developed: business as usual (BAU) and NRE. The analysis, which simulates until 2034, aligns with Indonesia’s Enhanced NDC target. Results indicate that the NRE scenario, while having a slightly higher levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at 9 cents USD/kWh compared to BAU’s 8.8 cents USD/kWh, achieves significant reductions in CO<inf xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</inf> emissions. This outcome is driven by a reduction in coal and diesel consumption, offset by an increase in nuclear, solar, and biomass energy production. Although the NRE scenario entails higher initial costs, it offers substantial environmental benefits that support Indonesia’s Enhanced NDC objectives by 2030 and build a strong foundation for realizing the national targets.