A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

Abstract We introduce a novel digital twin framework for predictive maintenance of physical systems with long term operations. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the digital twin framework is used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, while overcoming technical challenges using a three-step approach. Firstly, for managing the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on this data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as Remaining Casing Potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Secondly, we incorporate real-time data by updating the predictive model in the digital twin framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its life span with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of a discrepancy function. Thirdly, to assist decision making in predictive maintenance, we implement a Tire State Decision Algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This three-step approach ensures that our digital twin not only accurately predicts the health of a system, but also continually refines its digital representation and makes predictive maintenance decisions for removal from service. Our proposed digital twin framework embodies a physical system accurately and leverages big data and machine learning for predictive maintenance, model update and decision making.