Persistent trends and geographic traits of heat waves in a changing climate

Abstract By adopting a heatwave (HW) definition with a ∼4-year recurrence frequency at world hot spots, we first examined the 1940–2022 HW climatology and trends in lifespan (duration), severity and recurrence frequency, by comparing the first and last 20-year periods of this 83- year record. Generally, HWs are becoming more frequent and more severe in the extra-tropic and mid-latitude regions. Increased HWs are not temporally uniform and tend to cluster together, posing a one-two punch for ecosystems. North America, regions affected by HWs in the early 21st Century expanded by ∼47% relative to those in the mid-20th Century, contributed primarily by regions starting to be exposed to HWs in the early 21st Century. Mid-latitude basins are vulnerable areas. Geographic shifts can be attributed to adjustments in planetary wavelengths due to increased air viscosity (related to global warming). Polar amplified warming, leading to a reduced equator to pole temperature gradients and an overall reduction in zonal wind speeds across midlatitudes, promotes amplified planetary wave amplitudes, leading to more severe and persistent blockings and cutoffs, thus an increase in HW frequency, severity, and duration. Climate model simulations under a business-as-usual emission scenario corroborate trends in HW severity and lifespan increases, supported by a strong intermodal consensus. HW periods correspond to heightened planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths, which increase with eddy viscosity. The temperature-dependent nature of air viscosity underscores the similarity between trends in PBL depth and HW areal extent in a warming climate.