The causal connection between CO ₂ emissions and agricultural productivity in Somalia: evidence from an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Agriculture is the backbone of Somalia’s economy, accounting for over 75% of GDP and 93% of total revenue. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model covering the period from 1990 through 2019, this study examines the relationship between CO2 emissions and agricultural productivity in Somalia. The analysis shows that agricultural productivity (AGR), GDP per capita and renewable energy consumption (REC) significantly impact environmental degradation. In particular, higher agricultural productivity and higher GDP per capita are associated with lower environmental degradation, emphasising the importance of sustainable agricultural practices. Conversely, renewable energy consumption initially increases environmental degradation, possibly due to transition problems in introducing new technologies. The short-term results of the error correction model (ECM) show a significant negative relationship between agricultural productivity, GDP and environmental degradation. At the same time, renewable energy consumption has a positive short-term impact. The originality of this study lies in the fact that it focuses on the particular environmental and agricultural context of Somalia. This region has received less attention in the existing literature. The study proposes policy reforms that promote sustainable land management strategies, including agroforestry, crop rotation and conservation agriculture. These strategies, if implemented, will help restore soil health and reduce deforestation caused by unsustainable agricultural practices, offering a hopeful and optimistic outlook for the future of Somalia’s agriculture and environment.