COULD RUSSIAN HYDROPOWER PROJECTS REACH ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY? JUSTIFICATION OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Classical investment analysis shows that even in conditions of preferential pricing of capacity, Russian hydropower projects are not economically attractive for investors.The purpose of this work is to identify the conditions in the Russian energy market under which capital-intensive and expensive-tooperate hydropower projects are able to achieve economic feasibility.The objects are Russian small hydropower projects selected for the wholesale energy market as part of the first programme of state support for renewable energy.The author's approach to assessing the economic efficiency of these projects based on the calculation of basic investment indicators is proposed.This approach takes into account the industry-specific features of capacity pricing, as well as the author's tools for assessing the cost of risks specific to these energy facilities.As a result, 12 possible scenarios for the implementation of small hydropower projects in the national market taking into account changes in the volume and timing of government support, as well as the degree of influence of political and environmental risks are developed.Based on the results of the scenario assessment of the economic efficiency of these projects, recommendations for the development of a programme of state support for Russian hydropower are proposed.