Unlocking Kenya's Export Potential: Opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area

Regional trade agreements enhance export market prospects by providing preferential access. Since 1986, Kenya has embraced an export-led growth strategy, unswervingly executing trade liberalization through bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade agreements. This study assesses Kenya's export potential within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework, intent on its bilateral trade prospects with six AfCFTA member states namely Cameroon, Egypt, Ghana, Mauritius, Tanzania and Tunisia. Utilizing the stochastic frontier gravity model, the analysis discloses that Kenya’s average export potential is strong, with potential rates of 94% for Cameroon and Tunisia, 66% for Mauritius, 93% for Egypt, 66% for Ghana, and 56% for Tanzania. The findings show that African states possess considerable export potential in agricultural and value-added products. To capitalize on this potential, it is critical to identify specific commodities that align with markets where Kenya's strengths are positioned. The study concludes that a targeted strategy focusing on specific goods for specific markets, along with increased export of agro-processed products through value addition and diversification, can effectively harness this potential.