Study on prediction method of controlled re-entry landing area of large spacecraft

Abstract The present paper proposes a calculation method for predicting the dispersion area of debris during the controlled re-entry of a large spacecraft, aiming to determine the controlled re-entry area accurately. This method involves analyzing the overall re-entry trajectory of the spacecraft as a priority, followed by ablation and disintegration analysis, and subsequently simulating the equipment-level trajectories of potential ground-falling components to obtain the final landing area envelope. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach effectively determines the controlled re-entry area, providing essential technical support for formulating implementation plans while ensuring safe and reliable reentries of large spacecraft into predetermined areas. Notably, this method has been successfully applied in previous missions such as Tianzhou-1 to Tianzhou 6 and can be further extended to subsequent controlled reentries involving Tianzhou-series cargo spacecraft and other low-orbit satellites.