Migration response to an immigration shock: evidence from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine

Abstract This article examines the impact of the massive and unexpected inflow of Ukrainians that resulted from Russia’s aggression in 2014 on local migration patterns in Poland. For identification, I use an instrumental variable approach drawing on unique historical data on the forced resettlement of Ukrainians in Poland after World War II. The results show that the regional inflow of immigrants, while crowding out internal in-migration, decreases both internal and international out-migration of the local population. I provide supportive evidence that the decrease in out-migration is due to an enlargement of local labor markets.