Large Eruptive and Confined Flares in Relation to the Solar Active Region Evolution

Abstract Solar active regions (ARs) provide the required magnetic energy and the topology configuration for flares. Apart from conventional static magnetic parameters, the evolution of AR magnetic flux systems should have nonnegligible effects on magnetic energy store and the trigger mechanism of eruptions, which would promote the prediction for the flare using photospheric observations conveniently. Here we investigate 322 large (M- and X-class) flares from 2010 to 2019, almost the whole solar cycle 24. The flare occurrence rate is obviously higher in the developing phase, which should be due to the stronger shearing and complex configurations caused by affluent magnetic emergences. However, the probability of flare eruptions in decaying phases of ARs is obviously higher than that in the developing phase. The confined flares were in nearly equal counts to eruptive flares in developing phases, whereas the eruptive flares were half over confined flares in decaying phases. Yearly looking at flare eruption rates demonstrates the same conclusion. The relationship between sunspot group areas and confined/erupted flares also suggested that the strong field make constraints on the mass ejection, though it can contribute to flare productions. The flare indexes also show a similar trend. It is worth mentioning that all the X-class flares in the decaying phase were erupted, without the strong field constraint. The decaying of magnetic flux systems had facilitation effects on flare eruptions, which may be consequent on the splitting of magnetic flux systems.