Simulating <i>Ips typographus</i> L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627

Abstract. New (a)biotic conditions resulting from climate change are expected to change disturbance dynamics, such as windthrow, forest fires, droughts, and insect outbreaks, and their interactions. These unprecedented natural disturbance dynamics might alter the capability of forest ecosystems to buffer atmospheric CO2 increases, potentially leading forests to transform from sinks into sources of CO2. This study aims to enhance the ORCHIDEE land surface model to study the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of the bark beetle, Ips typographus, and subsequent effects on forest functioning. The Ips typographus outbreak model is inspired by previous work from Temperli et al. (2013) for the LandClim landscape model. The new implementation of this model in ORCHIDEE r8627 accounts for key differences between ORCHIDEE and LandClim: (1) the coarser spatial resolution of ORCHIDEE; (2) the higher temporal resolution of ORCHIDEE; and (3) the pre-existing process representation of windthrow, drought, and forest structure in ORCHIDEE. Simulation experiments demonstrated the capability of ORCHIDEE to simulate a variety of post-disturbance forest dynamics observed in empirical studies. Through an array of simulation experiments across various climatic conditions and windthrow intensities, the model was tested for its sensitivity to climate, initial disturbance, and selected parameter values. The results of these tests indicated that with a single set of parameters, ORCHIDEE outputs spanned the range of observed dynamics. Additional tests highlighted the substantial impact of incorporating Ips typographus outbreaks on carbon dynamics. Notably, the study revealed that modeling abrupt mortality events as opposed to a continuous mortality framework provides new insights into the short-term carbon sequestration potential of forests under disturbance regimes by showing that the continuous mortality framework tends to overestimate the carbon sink capacity of forests in the 20- to 50-year range in ecosystems under high disturbance pressure compared to scenarios with abrupt mortality events. This model enhancement underscores the critical need to include disturbance dynamics in land surface models to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics in a changing climate.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geoscientific model development
Published
2024-11-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024
Citations
6
Primary Topic
Forest Insect Ecology and Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.75

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article

Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627

Anne Sofie Lansø, Aude Valade, Joséfine Ghattas, Kim Naudts et al.
6 citations
Geoscientific model development
Forest Insect Ecology and Management
2.75
article

Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627

Anne Sofie Lansø, Aude Valade, Joséfine Ghattas, Kim Naudts, Gunnar Petter, Guillaume Marie, Matthew J. McGrath, Maxime Cailleret, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Jina Jeong, Bertrand Guenet, Vladislav Bastrikov, Chao Yue, Hervé Jactel
article en
6 citations

Abstract

Abstract. New (a)biotic conditions resulting from climate change are expected to change disturbance dynamics, such as windthrow, forest fires, droughts, and insect outbreaks, and their interactions. These unprecedented natural disturbance dynamics might alter the capability of forest ecosystems to buffer atmospheric CO2 increases, potentially leading forests to transform from sinks into sources of CO2. This study aims to enhance the ORCHIDEE land surface model to study the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of the bark beetle, Ips typographus, and subsequent effects on forest functioning. The Ips typographus outbreak model is inspired by previous work from Temperli et al. (2013) for the LandClim landscape model. The new implementation of this model in ORCHIDEE r8627 accounts for key differences between ORCHIDEE and LandClim: (1) the coarser spatial resolution of ORCHIDEE; (2) the higher temporal resolution of ORCHIDEE; and (3) the pre-existing process representation of windthrow, drought, and forest structure in ORCHIDEE. Simulation experiments demonstrated the capability of ORCHIDEE to simulate a variety of post-disturbance forest dynamics observed in empirical studies. Through an array of simulation experiments across various climatic conditions and windthrow intensities, the model was tested for its sensitivity to climate, initial disturbance, and selected parameter values. The results of these tests indicated that with a single set of parameters, ORCHIDEE outputs spanned the range of observed dynamics. Additional tests highlighted the substantial impact of incorporating Ips typographus outbreaks on carbon dynamics. Notably, the study revealed that modeling abrupt mortality events as opposed to a continuous mortality framework provides new insights into the short-term carbon sequestration potential of forests under disturbance regimes by showing that the continuous mortality framework tends to overestimate the carbon sink capacity of forests in the 20- to 50-year range in ecosystems under high disturbance pressure compared to scenarios with abrupt mortality events. This model enhancement underscores the critical need to include disturbance dynamics in land surface models to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics in a changing climate.

Geoscientific model developmentVol. 17(21)
CEA CESTA (FR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR), Université de Bordeaux (FR), Université du Québec à Rimouski (CA), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Université de Montpellier (FR), Aarhus University (DK), Aix-Marseille Université (FR), Institut Agro Montpellier (FR), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (FR), ETH Zurich (CH), Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR), Ecologie fonctionnelle & biogéochimie des sols & des agro-systèmes (FR), Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes (FR), Institute of Soil and Water Conservation (CN), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (FR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), CEA Paris-Saclay (FR), Laboratoire de Physique de l'Ecole Normale Supérieure (FR), Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications (ES), Institut Agro Montpelier (FR), UMR BIOdiversity, GEnes & Communities (FR), Laboratoire de Géologie de l’École Normale Supérieure (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), L'Institut Agro (FR), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
National Science Foundation, Agropolis Fondation, European Commission, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Grand Équipement National De Calcul Intensif, Horizon 2020
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Forest Insect Ecology and Management
2.75
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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